Assessing Future Potentiality of Technology Seeds from the Perspective of “Imaginary Future Generations” – a Case Study of Hydrothermal Technology

In this study, we propose an innovative method for assessing the future potentiality of technology from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” (IFGs) using a case study of hydrothermal technology and verify the effectiveness of this method. For this study, we conducted a participatory deliberation experiment adopting the method of IFGs and study its effect on the formulation of scenarios for social implementation of hydrothermal technology in society in the year 2040, and on the evaluation framework for assessing the future potentiality and innovation of technology. From the results of the discussions among four groups of participants and questionnaires administered to the participants, we confirmed that IFGs had significant effects on the results of discussions and on the assessment framework, with the relative weights of assessment indicators shifted. We conclude that the adoption of IFGs could lead to the following: (1) Shifting and relativizing the value and positioning of a technology; (2) Shifting the requirements for the development and social implementation of a technology; and (3) Changing the framework used to assess the future potentiality of a technology. The results demonstrate the importance of adopting IFGs when examining research and development strategies and assessing future potentiality of technology, and for changing the direction of technology innovation from the viewpoint of futurability and sustainability