Assessing socio-economic development in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation under new conditions

The paper analyses potential impacts of recessionary events on the dynamics of regional development. Our calculations have been made by applying an optimization forecasting model to the money flows observed in the Novosibirsk Oblast. We treated the recessionary impacts as follows: a reduction in regional financing by the federal government, devaluation of national currency, transformations of overdue repayment of debts on issued loans, and a reduction in capital projects financing. We show that it is the policy concerning the investment of construction projects - first of all, large ones - proved to be a key factor affecting the socio-economic development in a region.