Assessing the change in financial condition: an analysis of panel data from u.s. states

This study assesses the change in states’ financial condition by examining their financial data in fiscal years (FY) 2003 and 2004. It explores and explains how much the change was, how it occurred, and whether and how closely the change might respond to states’ socioeconomic development. The study finds that states’ financial condition varied significantly from FY 2003 to FY 2004. Changes in different aspects of financial condition are interrelated, although these changes may not occur simultaneously at the same pace. The change in financial condition may result from the multi-year cumulative socioeconomic development in personal income and employment, but not in population. The impact of personal income and employment on financial condition of a government is likely long term; it may take 3-4 years for the growth in personal income and employment to benefit a government’s financial condition. The results also suggest that the cumulative improvement of personal income and employment for consecutive years prior to a fiscal year is more likely to improve the financial condition of that year than a personal income or employment increase that follows an up-and-down pattern of growth. These findings can be used to develop effective strategies to improve financial conditions in government.