Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper assesses the validity of the ECB ‘benign neglect’ approach towards foreign exchange markets. I extend the analysis performed in Tronzano (2008) on the U$/Euro rate, applying a wide range of conditional volatility models to Yen/Euro data from 1999 to 2007. An overall evaluation of results, in the light of the literature on the welfare effects of nominal exchange rate volatility and optimal rules for open economies, reveals that the ECB inwardoriented approach was fully appropriate. In line with Tronzano (2008), this paper excludes therefore substantial welfare gains from a policy incorporating a systematic reaction to exchange rate dynamics.