Assessment of Suitable Areas for Afforestation and its Carbon Sink Value in Fragile Ecological Areas of Northern China

Afforestation and reforestation (A&R) play crucial roles in mitigating land degradation and enhancing the carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, making them integral components in addressing climate change challenges. However, the potential economic implications of A&R in the context of climate change remain largely unexplored. Here, we employ an interdisciplinary approach to assess the spatial distribution of A&R potential in ecologically fragile areas of northern China under various climate change scenarios. We also calculate the economic value of forest carbon sinks, considering the influence of time preference. Our study reveals that suitable areas for afforestation exhibit a tendency to cluster around existing forests, rather than being randomly dispersed. By 2050, it is projected that the study area will experience a substantial increase in forest carbon sink, ranging from 36.93 to 105.38 Mt through A&R efforts. This increase corresponds to an estimated economic value ranging from $3.25 to $17.68 billion. Notably, the carbon sink capacity of the region becomes increasingly polarized over time, with the top 10% of the area accounting for nearly half of the total carbon sink. Additionally, approximately 26% of the counties will transition from carbon sinks to carbon sources. These findings underscore the necessity of a focused approach to combat forest degradation by avoiding inefficient afforestation activities