Asset allocation : International real estate investment strategy under a workable analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to conceptualise a workable strategic asset allocation (SAA) model, given the data paucity problem, and involve an ex ante framework that is distributional free. Design/methodology/approach – The SAA model is developed within a semi‐quantitative and expert‐based framework – the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) – and not a purely time‐series one. It is developed on the basis of consensus by a group of real estate investment experts, who agree on a fixed investment time horizon so that the time factor is disregarded as a variant. The SAA becomes the interface around which a set of tactical bands is imposed, subject to the Markowitz mean‐variance optimisation, and utilizing the total‐return data set of the Jones Lang LaSalle Real Estate Intelligence Service‐Asia. The lower and upper limits of the tactical bands represent the cyclical attractiveness of the various Asian office markets as growth and value‐added markets Findings – The SAA‐AHP model robustly reflects expert judgement among a cohesive group of real estate investment experts, with regard to a Pan‐Asia office market portfolio of eight major Asian cities. Through pair‐wise comparisons and subject to consistency checks in terms of the consistency ratio of <0.10, then the comparative expert assessment of the macro‐economic and the real estate specific factors driving individual Asian real estate markets, would be consistent (i.e. non conflicting). Then the total weighted evaluations of individual markets are derived and deployed as the SAA portfolio mix. This portfolio mix thus becomes the appropriate interface, around which the tactical asset allocation (TAA) is developed within defined tactical bands. These bands must be in line with the underlying Asian real estate market analysis and their cyclical positions. The TAA is obtained through the Markowitz mean‐variance portfolio optimisation, with the objective of locating the optimally efficient TAA on the Markowitz efficient frontier, under a maximising risk‐adjusted‐return Sharpe ratio. Originality/value – The SAA‐AHP model is reliant on an ex ante assessment of alternative asset allocation strategies on the basis of expert judgement of the macroeconomic environment and the Asian office markets. It is an appropriate SAA alternative to one based on the typical economic‐sized indicators, for example, the urban GDP.