Asymmetric Impact of Insecurity on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. It used non-linear autoregressive distributed Lag model to show effect of insecurity proxied by terrorism index and crime rate on agricultural productivity proxied agriculture share of gross domestic product. Quarterly time series data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria, Institute for Economic and Peace and World Development Indicators for the period 2009Q1 to 2022Q4. Major findings revealed significant long and short run asymmetric impact of terrorism on agricultural productivity, as increase and decrease in terrorism and crime rate in Nigeria cause disproportionate change in agricultural productivity. The paper concludes that insecurity is a major determinant of agricultural productivity in Nigeria and recommends in favor of the need to re-invest in the security sector especially in rural communities of Nigeria where impact of insurgencies and other forms of terrorism are prevalent. This will help reduce the effect of terrorism on agricultural productivity in food producing communities, in addition to helping communities affected by terrorism to revive their interests in agriculture.