Axiomatization of a Preference for Most Probable Winner

In binary choice between discrete outcome lotteries, an individual may prefer lottery L <Subscript>1</Subscript> to lottery L <Subscript>2</Subscript> when the probability that L <Subscript>1</Subscript> delivers a better outcome than L <Subscript>2</Subscript> is higher than the probability that L <Subscript>2</Subscript> delivers a better outcome than L <Subscript>1</Subscript>. Such a preference can be rationalized by three standard axioms (solvability, convexity and symmetry) and one less standard axiom (a fanning-in). A preference for the most probable winner can be represented by a skew-symmetric bilinear utility function. Such a utility function has the structure of a regret theory when lottery outcomes are perceived as ordinal and the assumption of regret aversion is replaced with a preference for a win. The empirical evidence supporting the proposed system of axioms is discussed. Copyright Springer 2006