Bayesian Inference in Limited Dependent Variable Models: An Application to Measuring Strike Duration.

This paper presents a straightforward set of Bayesian techniques for analyzing models involving limited dependent variables; the techniques are demonstrated in an analysis of Kennan's (1985) data on contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing. The data are analyzed by deriving posterior distributions--including probability distributions--of hazard functions for strike durations using numerical Monte Carlo methods. The distributions are employed to derive coverage intervals for hazard functions, to assess the relative plausibility of nonnested hypotheses concerning the shape of the functions, and to assess the impact of industrial production on duration. Copyright 1993 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.