Benefit Transfer over Time of Ecosystem Values: the Case of Forest Recreation

We conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on car-borne forest recreation in 52 forests, using a mixed specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population and for heterogeneity over space. Results show that some preferences of forest attributes, such as species diversity and age, as well as transport mode have changed significantly over the period. Updating the transfer model with present demand for recreation improves the error margins by an average of 182%. However, average errors of the best transfer model remain 145%.