Biased Lung Cancer Risk Perceptions: Smokers are Misinformed

Abstract This paper empirically investigates biased beliefs about the risks of smoking. First, it confirms the established tendency of people to over estimate the lifetime risk of a smoker to contract lung cancer. In this paper’s survey, almost half of all respondents overestimate this risk. However, 80% under estimate lung cancer deadliness. In reality, less than one in five patients survive five years after a lung cancer diagnosis. Due to the broad underestimation of the lung cancer deadliness, the lifetime risk of a smoker to die of lung cancer is underestimated by almost half of all respondents. Smokers who do not plan to quit are significantly more likely to underestimate this overall mortality risk.