Bitcoin : Quo Vadis? a Forecast Based on Estimated Production Costs and Investor Preferences

While studies predict, that the expected growth of the Bitcoin hash rate will cause a surge in emissions of greenhouse gases, this paper shows inter alia that a first technology jump in 2030 could bring down production costs of Bitcoin tremendously. In contrast, the biggest threat Bitcoin is facing right now is the problem of custody. Contrary to the ideas of the cypherpunks with their strong dislike of governments and big companies, large institutional investors do not want to own actual Bitcoins, offered on the actual unregulated Bitcoin blockchain. They wait for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds or Bitcoins held in custody by regulated crypto exchanges or traditional banks. The authors calculate that if enough institutional investors decide to rebalance their portfolio in order to invest in an asset with quasi fixed supply like Bitcoin this will have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin