BUSINESS CYCLE AND SECTORAL FLUCTUATIONS: A NONLINEAR MODEL FOR CÔTE D’IVOIRE

Although the share of service sector in Côte d’Ivoire’s real GDP is higher than other sectors, it is widely recognized that the Ivorian economy is mainly based on agricultural sector and thus the fluctuations in this ‘motor’ sector could have a huge impact on the growth process of the country. We examine the issue of existence, identification and interaction of business cycle in Côte d’Ivoire’s GDP and compare its fluctuations with the disaggregated main economic sectors (agriculture, industry and service), by using a univariate Markov regime switching model and its multivariate version over the period 1970-2001. We found similarities and simultaneity of business cycle between the sectors of the economy. While the real GDP’s business cycle can be characterized, according to its mean duration (around 10 years) as a Juglar type cycle, the sectors’ cycles mean duration is shorter from 4 to 5 years.