Business cycle uncertainty in real-times

In simulated out-of-sample experiments to the Eurozone this paper finds that not only are real-time point estimates of the output gap unreliable, but so are measures of uncertainty associated with them. This provides a serious challenge to users of output gap estimates.

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Year of publication:	2003 ; 2003 edition
Other Persons:	Mitchell, James (contributor)
Institutions:	European Commission / Statistical Office of the European Union (issuing body)
Publisher:	Luxembourg : Publications Office
Subject:	Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Risiko \| Risk \| Frühindikator \| Leading indicator \| Konjunkturtheorie \| Business cycle theory \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Zeitreihenanalyse \| Time series analysis \| Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit \| Decision under uncertainty \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Konjunkturzusammenhang \| Business cycle synchronization \| Wirtschaftsindikator \| Economic indicator

Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (48 p.) Illustrationen (farbig)
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Bibl. : p. 20-23
ISBN:	92-894-6855-6
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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