Business Cycles with Staggered Prices and International Trade in Intermediate Inputs

This paper proposes a unified theory to explain two observed patterns of international business cycle comovements: 1) The correlations in aggregate output and in consumption between OECD countries tend to be much higher than those between emerging market economies such as Latin America; and 2) Within each region, the output correlations are systematically greater than the consumption correlations. The model departs from the standard international business cycle model in that it incorporates a vertical production and trading chain, which is a feature of growing importance in modern world economy. The vertical chain embodies a powerful propagation mechanism that helps generate the observed magnitude and patterns of international correlations following monetary policy shocks.