Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice : Using Excel, VBA And RISK

Intro -- Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice -- Contents -- Preface -- About the Author -- About the Website -- PART I An Introduction to Risk Assessment - Its Uses, Processes, Approaches, Benefits and Challenges -- 1 The Context and Uses of Risk Assessment -- 1.1 Risk Assessment Examples -- 1.1.1 Everyday Examples of Risk Management -- 1.1.2 Prominent Risk Management Failures -- 1.2 General Challenges in Decision-Making Processes -- 1.2.1 Balancing Intuition with Rationality -- 1.2.2 The Presence of Biases -- 1.3 Key Drivers of the Need for Formalised Risk Assessment in Business Contexts -- 1.3.1 Complexity -- 1.3.2 Scale -- 1.3.3 Authority and Responsibility to Identify and Execute Risk-Response Measures -- 1.3.4 Corporate Governance Guidelines -- 1.3.5 General Organisational Effectiveness and the Creation of Competitive Advantage -- 1.3.6 Quantification Requirements -- 1.3.7 Reflecting Risk Tolerances in Decisions and in Business Design -- 1.4 The Objectives and Uses of General Risk Assessment -- 1.4.1 Adapt and Improve the Design and Structure of Plans and Projects -- 1.4.2 Achieve Optimal Risk Mitigation within Revised Plans -- 1.4.3 Evaluate Projects, Set Targets and Reflect Risk Tolerances in Decision-Making -- 1.4.4 Manage Projects Effectively -- 1.4.5 Construct, Select and Optimise Business and Project Portfolios -- 1.4.6 Support the Creation of Strategic Options and Corporate Planning -- 2 Key Stages of the General Risk Assessment Process -- 2.1 Overview of the Process Stages -- 2.2 Process Iterations -- 2.3 Risk Identification -- 2.3.1 The Importance of a Robust Risk Identification Step -- 2.3.2 Bringing Structure into the Process -- 2.3.3 Distinguishing Variability from Decision Risks -- 2.3.4 Distinguishing Business Issues from Risks -- 2.3.5 Risk Identification in Quantitative Approaches: Additional Considerations.