Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?

We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.

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Year of publication:	2010
Authors:	Sinclair, Tara M. ; Joutz, Fred ; Stekler, H.O.
Published in:	Economics Letters. - Elsevier, ISSN 0165-1765. - Vol. 108.2010, 1, p. 28-32
Publisher:	Elsevier
Keywords:	Forecast evaluation Federal Reserve Systematic errors Recessions

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Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008494894