Causal attributions of vineyard executives : a mental model study of vineyard management

This article contributes a reference of causal attributions made by vineyard executives in Chile, where increasing costs and stagnating prices challenge the vineyards’ profits. The investigation was motivated by the question how executives interpret the industry's mid term future and how they reflect on steering their companies. Based on in-depth interviews, causal maps were elaborated to represent the executives' mental models. These are represented as sequences of attributions, connecting variables by causal links. It was found that some mental models guide policies bound to increase the prices, whereas other models suggest taking the prices as givens and control costs. The collection of causal attributions of the vineyard executives (CAVE) has been made publicly available. As a result, CAVE can be used by other management scholars to elicit other executives' mental models and increase the data base available. Since such research will be cumulative, a minimum size for meaningful statistical analysis can be reached, opening up an avenue for improving the design of business policies. CAVE can also serve executives and consultants in constructing causal argumentations and business policies. Future research and development of supporting software are called for.