Changing Caseloads: Macro Influences and Micro Composition

[...]Our analysis is composed of three parts. First, we provide adiscussion of what the effects of welfare reform on thecomposition of the caseload—primarily measured by labormarket skill level—should be, in principle. Perhaps surprisingly,we argue that different welfare reform policies havedifferent effects on more skilled versus less skilled recipients,and that the net effect of the policies taken together is mixedand ambiguous. Second, we provide some new evidence fromthe nation as a whole using Current Population Survey (CPS)data, and from the state of Maryland using administrativecaseload and earnings data. Third, we summarize what the fewother studies of welfare stayers have shown.[...]