Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Outlook

Global economic conditions have deteriorated considerably since summer 2011. Europe in particular has been obliged to revise its growth expectations sharply downwards. The debt crisis and its consequences have stifled demand worldwide, even impacting regions that have long been developing dynamically, like East Asia. The only recent ray of hope came from the US economy, which outperformed forecasts last autumn. Overall, the world economy is expected to expand at a slower pace during the winter of 2011–2012 and to recover tentatively over the rest of the year. This forecast is based on the assumption, however, that the debt crisis in Europe will not worsen.