Chapter 14 The timing of innovation: Research, development, and diffusion

The analysis of the timing of innovation posits a particular innovation and examines the way the expected benefits, the cost of research and development, and interactions among competing firms combine to determine the pattern of expenditure across firms and over time, the date of introduction, and the identity of the innovating firm. In the case of a sequence of innovations, the expected lifetime of a given innovation and the pattern of technological leadership are also determined endogenously. Given that an innovation has been perfected, the extent and timing of its dissemination into use may be examined. This may depend upon a number of factors, including the existence of rival firms and institutions, which may facilitate or retard the dissemination of innovations. The chapter discusses the issues of innovation production in the context of symmetric noncooperative models. The chapter investigates the extent of dissemination of the innovation, where this dissemination is achieved through licensing.