Chapter 4 Arms export controls and the proliferation of military technology

Purpose – To examine the implications of arms export controls on the international spread of weapons production and innovation. Methodology/approach – The chapter analyses predicted responses to arms export controls, drawing on existing literature. It considers incentives to potential buyer countries to develop their own substitutes and a case study of Australia's response to US denial of access to electronic warfare self-protection (EWSP) technology for fighter aircraft. Findings – Spurred by the US denial of access to relevant EWSP, Australia devoted many years to developing a homegrown substitute. Although Australia achieved some success, the United States ultimately granted Australia access to the technology. Australia then abandoned research, design and development (RD&D) on EWSP for fast jets in 2009. Cause and effect remain a matter of debate. Research limitations/implications – Insight into the real-world value of the theory is limited by the use of a single case study. Such cases supported by publicly available information are, however, scarce. Countries seeking to circumvent export controls must expect to incur high costs and uncertain outcomes. Practical implications – Policy-makers should be wary about committing large budgets in developing substitutes for new technologies denied them through export controls. Such efforts may, however, offer the possibility of putting suppliers under pressure unavailable from other actions. Social implications – Arms export controls designed to limit proliferation of weapons create incentives for states to develop their capabilities for new arms production and to develop new weapons-related knowledge. Originality/value of the chapter – This chapter provides a new case study which illustrates an innovative approach to arms export control analysis.