Chapter 9 An Index Proposal for Supply Security Risk in Fossil Energy Imports: The Case of Turkey

Introduction: Although the concept of energy security has different meanings for each country, it is included in the energy policies of all countries in general. Energy security policies have more strategic importance especially for energy-importing countries. Imported energy sources are widely used in Turkey as in many countries. The variety of imported energy sources and the density of imports according to the imported countries affect the security of imported energy supply. Although the high density of imports is a risk factor, there are political and structural factors that may affect economic relations with the countries where energy is imported. Aim: The aim of this study is to measure the short-term risk for the import of fossil resources in Turkey for the period 1999–2018. Method: An index has composed by revising the risky external energy supply index included in the study of Le Coq and Paltseva (2009) . Findings: Empirical findings showed that on average, the most risky source of imports based on fossil resources is oil, followed by natural gas and coal respectively. Originality of the Study: Various risk factors such as fossil fuel import intensity, political risk, and logistics performance have been taken into consideration in the proposed index. So this index proposed for Turkey, is expected to offer a different perspective to the energy supply security literature. Implications: The proposed risk index has enabled the measurement of the level of risk in imported fossil sources in Turkey. Thus, policy implications have been made for energy supply security.