Characterizing the Distinct Modulation of Future Emissions on Summer Ozone Concentrations between Urban and Rural Areas Over China

Previous studies on ozone pollution primarily focus on the characterization of ozone on a large regional scale, yet much less attention has been paid towards the contrast between urban and surrounding suburban-rural areas. As anthropogenic emissions are projected to decrease in the coming decades, the evolutions of ozone concentrations over urban and suburban-rural areas are compared using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The top 25 city clusters are firstly identified across China based on the amount of NOx emissions and population size. At present, the averages of maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations over the suburban-rural areas (65.74 ppbv) among these city clusters are higher than the corresponding urban areas (62.00 ppbv). The projections in 2050s depend on the scenarios. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios such as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 indicative of primary decreases in anthropogenic emissions, the mean MDA8 ozone concentrations in suburban-rural areas decrease more than urban areas. In contrast, the gap of higher MDA8 ozone concentrations in suburban-rural than urban areas increases under SSP3-7.0 concomitant with increase in anthropogenic emissions. The strongest response to emission changes is found in SSP1-2.6, in which anthropogenic emission reduction leads to lower MDA8 ozone concentrations in the suburban-rural than urban areas, reversing the present state of higher ozone concentrations in the suburban-rural areas. The feature abovementioned regarding changes of mean MDA8 ozone concentrations is largely reproduced in the response of ozone exceedance. The finding highlights different efficacies of anthropogenic emissions in urban from suburban-rural areas. In a region like China where the population density is much higher in urban than suburban-rural regions, the benefit of ozone reduction due to large emission reductions (e.g., SSP1-2.6) is diminished to some extent because the effect is larger in suburban-rural areas