Child Benefits and Macroeconomic Simulation Analyses : An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility

In predicting the impact of policies on macroeconomic variables, the government must consider the effect of household fertility choices on demographic trends, as macroeconomic variables can be influenced by population scale. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of existing studies with endogenous fertility models and examines the effect of various policies on macroeconomic variables through simulation analysis based on the overlapping generations model (OLG) of Oguro et al. (2011), which determines population growth endogenously, with the growth rate affected by household fertility choices. Our results demonstrate a major effect on future population and public debt predictions studied in a scenario combining fiscal reform and introduction of child benefits.