Chocs extérieurs et régimes monétaires en Asie du Sud-Est : une analyse DSGE

This paper compares economic and welfare performances of four monetary regimes (target zone, pure floating, managed and fixed exchange rates) for each of the five founding members of ASEAN, using a small open economy DSGE model. The model incorporate the financial accelerator and the phenomenon of original sin, and is partially estimated using the Bayesian method and calibrated with data from these countries. Through stabilization properties and welfare analysis, I find that, facing external shocks, the flexible exchange rate regime is best for each country, followed by intermediate regimes and fixed exchange rate. I show that these results might be affected by the degree of openness of economies, highlighting the role of demand-switching effect.