Choice Modelling and Simulation of Low Emission Vehicles Under Different Policy Scenarios in the Philippines

Using stated preference data from 300 respondents of a discrete choice experiment, a conditional logit model was estimated to determine preference for low emission vehicles (LEV) and to simulate vehicle share in Metro Manila, Philippines. The model shows that among different vehicle types, there is highest preference for diesel vehicles. Among LEVs, only hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) have a preference level comparable to diesel and gasoline vehicles. Least preferred by the respondents are liquefied petroleum gas and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Initial simulation of vehicle share shows a high share of HEV and BEV, suggesting the large effect of emission levels on choice. However, when acquisition cost and the number of available vehicle models in the Philippines are accounted for, simulation results show a significantly reduced market share for HEV and BEV with AutoLPG vehicles gaining a higher share. The potential co-benefits from reduced emission and fuel savings and the vehicle owners' preference for lower emission levels are the main factors for adopting LEVs. However, LEVs remain expensive to most Filipino vehicle owners. A significant price reduction and an increase in available LEV models can facilitate faster adoption of LEVs among Filipino vehicle owners