Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point?

Mitali Das and Papa N’Diaye

China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Das, Mitali ; N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P.
Publisher:	Washington, DC : IMF
Subject:	Alternde Bevölkerung \| Aging population \| Arbeitskräftepotenzial \| Labour force \| Arbeitsnachfrage \| Labor demand \| Szenariotechnik \| Scenario analysis \| China

Extent:	Online-Ressource (20 S.) graph. Darst.
Series:	IMF working papers. - Washington, DC : IMF, ZDB-ID 2108494-4. - Vol. 13/26 IMF Working Papers
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	"January 2013 "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department Includes bibliographical references Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; Figure 1.A. What is the Lewis Turning Point?; Figure 1.B. Economy Where Full Employment has not Been Achieved; II. Recent Developments; Figure 2. Labor Market Developments; III. Empirical Framework; Figure 3. Demographic Pressures; IV. Results; Tables; Table 1: Variable definitions and Sources; Table 2: Estimated Regression Coefficients; V. Scenario Analysis; A. Baseline Scenario; Figure 4. Estimated Excess Supply Levels; Figure 5. Labor Force, Actual and Regression Estimates; Figure 6. Baseline Scenario: Surplus Labor Figure 7. Alternative Scenarios: Surplus LaborB. Increase in the Fertility Rate; Figure 8. Working Age Population: Constant and High Fertility; Table 3: Excess Labor Supply Scenarios (millions); C. Higher Labor Force Participation Rates; D. Financial Sector Reform; E. Product Market Reform; Figure 9. Labor Force Participation Rate; VI. Conclusion; Appendix: Derivation of Empirical Framework; References Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
ISBN:	978-1-4755-4824-2 ; 978-1-4755-4824-2
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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