O ciclo do café durante a República Velha: uma análise com a abordagem de dinâmica de sistemas [Coffe cycle during the Old Republic: analysis with a system dynamics approach]

The purpose of this work is to perform a systemic analysis of coffee production in Brazil in the period 1900-1930. The motivation to use system dynamics is that such methodology seems especially suitable to model processes subject to dynamic complexity, such as commodity cycles. Firstly, it will be shown that modeling and simulating the dynamics of coffee production in Brazil with this methodology enables to assess in a quantitative manner through counter-factual experiments the effects of price protection policies, which might complement the rich literature available on the subject. Secondly, it will be suggested that approaching the subject under that lens may allow the obtaining of insights on economic policy for other Brazilian important commodities beyond coffee.