Classifying shrinking regions : Shrinking smartly and sustainably

Many OECD countries are undergoing profound demographic transitions that are set to continue in the coming decades. However, these trends, and their effects, can differ markedly across space within countries. Rural areas and small regions have experienced the steepest declines, and more than one in five small and midsize cities has also lost population, while metropolitan regions continue to grow. Such patterns create significant policy challenges at all levels of government. To respond effectively, policymakers need granular, place-based data that identify not just the locations of change but also the drivers of population decline. This paper contributes by providing a detailed mapping of demographic trends in OECD and EU countries, using harmonised, high-resolution data from the OECD Regions, Cities and Local Statistics database. It analyses the intensity and composition of demographic change at regional, city and local levels, distinguishing between natural change and migration. Building on a review of existing approaches, the paper introduces a new typology of demographic change that captures both the direction and components of demographic change. This framework helps identify the places most exposed to demographic pressures and supports the design of more targeted and place-based policy responses.