CO2 reduction for urban goods movement: is it possible to reach the Factor 4 by 2050?

In this paper, we propose an appraisal of combinations of several public policy measures that seem to be the most probable by 2050, for urban goods movement (UGM). The proposed scenarios follow the trends of transportation long-term issues in France and introduce the specificity of the urban geography in freight-related trips. The considered trips are those classical for freight distribution in urban areas plus those related the household purchasing behaviour. A simulation method that combines several land-use and transport interaction (LUTI) models is also proposed, in order to estimate the gains of each scenario respect to the current situation (the emissions calculated on 2006 surveyed data for the city of Lyon). Finally, we present a set of suggestions in order to reach the factor 4 for UGM and if it is realistic.