Coal and Affluence

The present affluence in the industrial world is the result of a long process starting 300 years ago with the invention of the steam engine and the gradual replacement of fire-wood by coal. Together with the later combustion engine the steam engine now sup-plies 80 percent of the power generation in the world and almost all power used for travel and transportation. Coal, oil and natural gas now accounts for 80 percent of the fuel supply in the world. Almost all steel production is now based on coal.Before the advent of coal, material production was limited by how much land was available for food, fuel and timber production. The availability of coal and other fossil fuels led to economic growth on an unprecedented scale and increase in food production and population. This paper explores the alternatives for energy supply if fossil fuels are phased out. The only alternatives are solar energy and nuclear energy. The available land areas on earth are not sufficient to produce the energy needed to support the present economic activity in the world. The potential is less than one tenth of the current use of fossil fuels. This is because of the population increase, the average lot of land per capita is now only around ½ hectare. This is far from enough to provide all material needs in today's affluent societies.Any limitation of the supply of fossil fuels will increase the risk of deforestation be-cause the value of wood would increase and tempt people to overexploit forests. The only new technology for utilizing solar energy that can change the prospects is solar cells. However, large-scale solar-cell based electricity supply systems are still un-proven. The present situation is that world population is growing and that people in poor countries strive to emulate the development in the rich countries. The per-capita land area available for solar energy continues to decrease