Combining Biophysical Modeling and Social Theory Pledges for a Re-Embedding of the Agri-Food System in 2050 in Austria

Land use faces a double challenge: to provide biomass to a growing population while contributing to climate-change mitigation. We here scrutinize this challenge by exploring the domestic option space for meeting the food demand of Austria in 2050 under the condition of no deforestation. To that end, we bring together a quantitative assessment based on biogeochemical models with a socio-political analysis based on the conceptual framework of (dis-) embeddedness derived from Polanyian thinking. We consider viable options by modifying four levers: (i) human diet and food waste; (ii) trade pattern; (iii) agricultural practices; (iv) technical climate change mitigation. Past and present policies in Austria have fostered an agro-food system rich in animal products, land-use specialization and the integration of biomass products within international markets, ultimately resulting in a loss of embeddedness. The biophysical analysis, however, highlights that a shift towards diets with less animal products would allow self-sufficiency or a generalization of organic farming while turning the agricultural and forestry sector into a net GHG sink. Following a Polanyian perspective, we show that feasible scenarios require different types of re-embedding of the agro-food system: ecological, spatial and social, implying that land products should rather be common goods than mere commodities