Commitment and the Time Structure of Taxation of Foreign Direct Investment

The paper examines the role of commitment to future tax policy as an explanation for tax incentives for foreign direct investment that take the form of rates that increase over time. Both commitment and non-commitment to future tax rates are analyzed using a two-period model with investment determined endogenously in the first period. Without commitment, it is shown that tax rates may increase or decrease with time depending on the relative values of the firms' outside option each period of investing elsewhere in the world and on the responsiveness of investment to a change in the tax rate. With commitment, the time structure of tax rates is shown to depend on the relative rates at which firms and governments discount the future