Common Baltic-Nordic business cycles : correlation- versus Markov-switching approaches

With strong historical ties, and economic linkages that have continued to grow after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Baltic and Nordic regions form a unique economic space. How interconnected are these regions, both to each other and to the rest of the world? Greater connections can help forecast future economic linkages-and also help assess the strength of the Euro as a common currency. This study applies two methods of business-cycle analysis (cross-correlations and Markov switching approaches) to seven countries in these regions. Both methods find evidence of a single Baltic common cycle for both output and consumption, while a Nordic cycle exists only for output, and there is no single common Baltic-Nordic cycle. Tests of correlation and concordance show there to be relatively strong connections with Germany, the U.S., and Russia-with Nordic-Baltic linkages also quire strong-but that the specific results vary by the method used.