Comouvements économiques dans les pays de la Zone CFA : Une analyse par le modèle factoriel dynamique généralisé

The aim of this paper is to check whether the economic and monetary policies developed under the CFA area create co-movements of business cycles of member countries. Indeed, the synchronization of business cycles is a result which can help to appreciate the degree of regional integration. Using the generalized dynamic factor model by Forni et al. (2004), we analyzed the one hand the co-movements between countries of CFA area over the period 1980-2004 and on the other hand we also conducted an analysis for UEMOA and CEMAC areas over the same period. This enabled us also to examine the effectiveness of the economic and monetary integration policies which are specific to these two sub-regional entities and also to check determinants of co-movements in their business cycles.