Comparative Analysis of Emerging Green Certificate Markets from a Computable General Equilibrium Perspective

Whether using market mechanisms to allocate green certificates in various countries is an optimal solution for stimulating green electricity production represents a question proposed by numerous recent comparative analyses, with opinions being split. Our paper proposes a differing perspective, employing modern computational economics techniques in order to study if general equilibrium is achievable, nationally and internationally, and how it compares with the non-market steady state. We analyse the field, determining exogenous and endogenous factors of influence that we cast into functional relationships via econometric estimation. Subsequently, we study four multi-period general equilibrium models, recursive and non-recursive, solving the latter ones via a Johansen/Euler method for simultaneous all-year computation. General equilibrium is shown to be achievable but dependent on country specific conditions, with optimality being relative in a globalised context. In closing, we present a case study focused on providing useful guidelines for future international marketing efforts in this domain.