Comparative analysis of long-term road fatality targets for individual states in the US—An application of experience curve models

Both the Federal government and individual state governments in the US establish long-term road fatality targets to plan and evaluate the effectiveness of their respective safety programs. The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple fatality projection model to project future fatality rates and number of fatalities through 2020 and 2030 for individual states. And then, long-term fatality target value established by ten selected states will be compared to our projected values to assess realism of these targets.