Composite Indicators of Business Activity for Poland Based on Survey Data

The paper presents a set of composite indicators of economic activity for Poland based on qualitative data from business and consumer surveys. They refer to the concept of economic sentiment indicator (ESI) used in EU countries, but some alternative concepts proposed by the author are tested as well. Time series of the indicators have been calculated for the period 1994-2001, using four alternative formulas and two different sets of survey data. Statistical properties of the indicators are analysed and business tendencies revealed by their evolution are compared with the actual economic developments, as reflected by GDP and industrial production index. The ultimate purpose is to assess the performance of such indicators in business cycle analysis.