Comprehensive modelling for approaching the Kyoto targets on a local scale

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the MARKAL comprehensive model in the development of coherent medium-term strategies and sound climate protection policies at local level. The local case study (Val d'Agri, Basilicata region, Italy) discusses the possible role of local communities in the achievement of the national objectives derived by the Kyoto Protocol, investigating the traditional sectors responsible for air pollution and providing a full picture of the main energy and material flows. A scenario by scenario analysis was performed to analyse the response of the modelled system to the introduction of an exogenous constraint on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The main effects are presented with reference to fuel mix, technology choice, real market prices and reduced costs of competing options. The comparison of the solutions obtained for the different scenarios is useful to point out the effects of the CO2 constraint on the total system cost and on the emission levels of other atmospheric pollutants. A further multiobjective optimisation was performed to analyse the effects of combined environmental constraints (CO2 and particulate) on the overall system cost as well as in terms of marginal costs.