Computer-based scenario modeling: Application to swine industry

There are four recent trends in agriculture that affect the research and strategy environment: the industrialization of the sector, the privatization of data, the decline of government's role in the sector, and the increase in industrial partners in research. In light of the changes in the industry and their affects on the research environment, this article explores the potential for computer-based scenario modeling for agribusiness research and strategic planning. To accomplish this and drawing on the theory of organizational ecology, a prototypical model of the swine industry is developed and then tested by applying a series of exogenous shocks to the system. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.