Conditions for the successful deployment of electric vehicles – A global energy system perspective

In the study, we analyse scenarios of car technology deployment and the global energy system using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) cost optimisation model. We consider some of the conditions under which new drivetrain technologies, particularly battery electric vehicles (BEVs), may be more cost competitive under different hypothetical states of the world. We focus on the role of a potential niche market for cars with a limited travel range and how this may affect overall deployment of alternative drivetrain technologies and fuel choice. The results show that assuming a market of substantial size for such short-range cars leads to technologies such as BEVs being deployed more readily. In addition, we show the important role of other factors, such as stringent climate change policy and possible limitations to resource availability, in supporting alternative technologies. This analysis thus identifies potential technology targets for support by decision makers.