Condoning More Codones : Florida's Opioid Trafficking Law and Opioid Mortality1

Conditional on a set population of opioid-dependents, opioid fatalities are a function of the total quantity available and the ease of accessing that quantity. While other studies examine policy changes affecting aggregate supply, I focus on the effects of easing access by changing the trade costs of moving opioids to heavy users. I exploit a quasi-experiment in Florida that raised the statutory minimum weight thresholds that trigger mandatory minimum sentencing for illegal possession, manufacture, or trafficking in prescription painkillers (oxycodone and hydrocodone). Using synthetic control, I find that the revised legislation increases opioid-related mortality. The corresponding economic cost, based on the value of a statistical life, exceeds the expected benefit from averted incarcerations