Constructing futures in new attractors

This paper provides an introduction to three key concepts derived from chaos theory, with practical examples of each, which the authors believe can offer marketers an enriched understanding of the process by which they set out to construct an alternative future. A central tenet of chaos theory is that the future is inherently unpredictable in detail, but can be predicted in broad terms: what appears to be random (e.g. the unexpected results of a new marketing strategy) may turn out to be determined by a phenomenon known as an attractor. Marketing managers are setting out to “construct a future”. The broad outcomes of their actions may be predictable in general terms, but the path by which their organisations reach those outcomes, and the detailed stages through which they pass, are not – however sound their conventional marketing planning may be. Practising marketing managers may understandably have reservations about transferring concepts which have not yet been fully tested in the natural sciences, where they have their origin, into marketing planning. Nevertheless, many are not in fact unique to chaos theory. Therefore, they are used here as a metaphor, to encourage managers to take a different view of the strategic issues facing their organisations, and to question the conventional wisdom that executive action can be taken on the basis of extensive rational analysis, in the expectation that it will achieve predetermined objectives. This paper thereby offers novel insights into the process of redefining markets and the opportunities that they provide. The attractor metaphor holds out a number of challenges for innovative marketers, as well as some cautionary lessons.