Contagion des crises de 1997 et 2008 en ASEAN+3 : un modèle VAR structurel

The crises of 1997 and 2008 provide a resourceful environment to study the impact of monetary and real shocks in ASEAN economies. The paper aims at analyzing the reaction of the Asean+3 member states facing international disturbances and at identifying the contagion mechanisms in action during the crisis periods. The main objective is to provide policy recommendations in order to increase these countries' economic stability to contemplate a monetary union in the medium term. In this paper, we use a Structural VAR to highlight phenomenon of pure contagion in the spread of the crises among the countries. We also witness a positive evolution in the shock responses of the Asean+3 member states, especially when they face international financial disturbances.