Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models

This essay suggests that the convergence controversy may reflect, in part, differences in perception regarding the viable set of competing testable hypotheses generated by existing growth theories. It argues that in contrast to the prevailing wisdom, the traditional neo-classical growth paradigm generates the club convergence hypothesis as well as the conditional convergence hypothesis. Furthermore, the inclusion of empirically significant variables such as human capital, income distribution, and fertility in conventional growth models, along with capital market imperfections, externalities, and non-convexities, strengthens the viability of club convergence as a competing hypothesis with conditional convergence.