Credibilidade da Política Monetária e a Previsão do Trade-off entre Inflação e Desemprego: Uma Aplicação para o Brasil

This paper evaluates, as proposed by Laxton and N’Diaye (2002), if the consideration of a measure of monetary policy credibility in the forecast of the Brazilian Phillips Curve, after the introduction of inflation targeting, implies an improvement. The findings denote that the use of a measure of monetary policy credibility for the Brazilian economy can provide a statistical model with a forecast quality for unemployment-inflation trade-off better than models of inflation that consider a stable relation between inflation expectations and inflation.