- 1 Introduction
- 2 The Perspective of Investors
- 2.1 Use of and Needs for Credit Migration Derivatives
- 2.2 Bets on CMDs
- 2.3 CMD Instruments
- 3 Pricing of Credit Migration Derivatives
- 3.1 Modelling of the Underlying
- 3.2 Building Blocks for Pricing CMDs
- 3.3 Credit Migration Swap
- 3.4 Pricing the Credit Migration Swap
- 4 Risk Neutral Default Probabilities
- 4.1 Change of Measure
- 5 Calibration
- 5.1 Kalman Filter
- 5.2 Maximum Likelihood
- 5.3 Calibration of the Risk-free Rate
- 5.4 Calibration of the Risk-Neutral Migration Probabilities
- 6 Results
- 6.1 Calibration Results
- 6.2 Pricing Results
- 7 Model Validation
- 7.1 Diculties
- 7.2 Comparing to CDS Spreads
- 7.3 Comparing to a Swiss bank Credit Portfolio
- 8 Conclusion
- Bibliography
- A Proofs
- B Credit Migration Swaps Spreads
- C CDS Spreads
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