Crime Attraction and Deterrence in Small Communities: Theory and Results

This study analyzes the distribution of property crimes among small communities within a metropolitan area. We have tested whether a pool of criminals operating within a metropolitan area allocates its aggregate activity according to a rational pattern. The theoretical model based on utility maximization shows that, given a set of relatively reasonable assumptions, the number of offenses is positively related to the potential criminal gains and negatively related to police effectiveness. Community characteristics affect the level of criminal activity in each community, an hypothesis which is supported by the empirical results pre sented here. The concentration of wealth and commercial activities attracts crime, whereas the clearance rate deters crime.