Current account balance and exchange rate adjustment in New Caledonia

New Caledonia has a structural trade deficit. Public transfers from the French State amount to a large part of credits in the current account balance. The local currency, the franc XPF, has had a fixed parity against the euro since 1999. In prospect of independence, which would imply a loss (or decrease) of transfers received from metropolitan France, we evaluate what would be the required adjustment in the F.XPF/euro exchange rate in order to prevent the current account balance from worsening. Results mainly depend on the evolution of the price of nickel.